This episode features Tucker Carlson interviewing Stephen Semler, an independent analyst who runs the Polygraph newsletter on Substack, about the Iran war’s unprecedented unpopularity, the $1.1 trillion defense budget, the military-industrial complex’s influence, the true costs of the war (including $100+ billion in direct costs and massive missile expenditures defending Israel), $352 billion in cumulative U.S. aid to Israel, and polling showing cost of living as voters’ top concern since 2022.
The Iran War is the most unpopular U.S. war since polling began
It started at -13% net support (13 points more opposed than in favor) and has fallen to -35% net support, making it the only major U.S. war since WWII to begin with negative net support.
Even among the minority who say the war was the “right decision,” about half want it ended as quickly as possible.
The Trump administration made no concerted effort to build public support before launching the war, unlike the Bush administration’s months-long rollout for Iraq.
Congress has not declared war or meaningfully constrained the executive; Democrats introduce symbolic war powers resolutions but vote for the budgets that fund the war.
The defense budget has reached $1.1 trillion — more than half the discretionary budget and larger than WWII averages in inflation-adjusted dollars
The FY2026 enacted budget is $1.1 trillion, including $150 billion from the “Big Beautiful Bill” reconciliation package.
Military spending occupies over half of the 12 annual appropriations bills and about one-third of total federal spending (more if domestic security and debt service are included).
Adjusted for inflation, the current annual budget exceeds the average yearly spending during WWII (1942–1945) by roughly $90 billion.
The proposed FY2027 budget is $1.5 trillion.
More than half the military budget flows to for-profit contractors, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of profit, lobbying, and think-tank influence
The top five contractors (Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, RTX) derive the vast majority of revenue from U.S. taxpayers; Lockheed Martin receives ~73% directly from DoD contracts and ~97% including foreign military sales brokered by the U.S. government.
Top executives at these firms earn $20–30 million annually.
Contractors recycle revenue into lobbying, campaign contributions, and funding Washington think tanks (CSIS, AEI, Heritage, Brookings) that produce research framing political problems as technical ones — e.g., urging higher missile production rather than ending the war driving the shortfall.
Semler’s newsletter Polygraph tracks a consistent pattern: members of Congress who vote for military spending increases receive 3–5 times more arms-industry donations than those who vote no.
Contractors deliberately spread production across congressional districts (“political engineering”) so that nearly every representative has local jobs tied to weapons programs.
Direct war costs for the first ~120 days are approximately $100 billion — far above the Congressional Budget Office’s $38 billion estimate
Semler estimated $72 billion for the first 60 days (operations, munitions replacement, base damage, Israel aid), then $103 billion at 120 days, corroborated by internal Pentagon leaks (~$100 billion) and the administration’s own $87 billion supplemental request (containing ~$72 billion in war costs).
The CBO’s $38 billion figure relies on a baseline that treats the already-historic $1.1 trillion peacetime budget as normal, writing off vast costs as “already included,” and uses outdated loss data (e.g., 24 MQ-9 drones lost vs. Air Force testimony indicating ~54 lost).
The Pentagon has never passed an audit and stonewalled CBO’s requests for data; the value of assets it cannot account for grows each year even as it claims progress.
Semler argues for a Sarbanes-Oxley-style law holding Pentagon leadership criminally liable for inaccurate financial records.
The U.S. has fired at least 609 missile interceptors solely to defend Israel since October 2023 — shouldering ~2/3 of the missile defense burden
During the June 2025 war: 80 SM-3 interceptors (~$30M each) and >150 THAAD interceptors launched in defense of Israel.
Since October 2023: >200 THAAD and >100 Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6) fired for Israel’s defense, per Washington Post reporting corroborated by JD Vance.
This excludes $500M/year in U.S. missile defense aid for Israel to buy its own interceptors.
Cumulative U.S. aid to Israel since the 1950s: $352 billion (inflation-adjusted), the largest total for any country; Israel (population ~9M, GDP ~$500B) receives $3.3B/year in Foreign Military Financing — a “gift card” for U.S. weapons, uniquely allowed to spend a portion on Israeli-made systems.
Cost of living has been Americans’ top issue for 116 of 117 weeks before the 2024 election and remains so; the war exacerbates inflation and betrays “America First” promises
Economist/YouGov polling: inflation/prices #1 issue since July 2022; Moody’s estimated the war cost the average household $2,000 via higher fuel and consumer prices.
Voters punished Democrats in 2024 for prioritizing foreign wars (Israel, Ukraine) over domestic costs; Republicans face the same dynamic in 2026.
New York Times/Ipsos (May 2026): 57% oppose additional military/economic aid to Israel (38% strongly); among 2024 non-voters, 50% strongly oppose more aid.
Semler argues the core conflict is workers vs. war profiteers: both parties serve the latter, and the system is structured to scare the public into compliance while looting the treasury.
Public awareness is deepening; the “parachute” analogy captures the ruling class’s detachment
Semler observes Americans are having deeper, more substantive conversations than a few years ago, forced by crisis to confront reality.
The pilot-wearing-a-parachute analogy: leaders greet passengers (voters) while visibly equipped to escape the consequences of their decisions — crypto, second passports, revolving-door jobs — leaving the public to crash.
The Iran war would likely have happened under a Harris administration too; the national security establishment was on a march to war regardless of party.
Semler’s work aims to make the costs visible and verifiable so the public can hold the system accountable.
