Ray McGovern, a 27-year CIA veteran who served under seven presidents and nine directors, traces the arc of U.S.–Russia relations from the Cuban Missile Crisis to the war in Ukraine, arguing that broken Western promises, intelligence politicization, and the influence of the Israel lobby have driven a series of catastrophic foreign-policy blunders.
Ray McGovern’s CIA career and the Kennedy era
McGovern joined the CIA in April 1963 after Army intelligence service during the Cuban Missile Crisis; his work focused on Soviet foreign policy for nearly three decades.
He cites JFK’s June 1963 American University speech — emphasizing mutual survival, acknowledging 27 million Soviet WWII dead, and warning against cornering a nuclear power — as the high point of U.S. strategic empathy.
McGovern believes JFK’s turn toward détente and his order to withdraw from Vietnam provoked a coup by the military–intelligence establishment, orchestrated by fired CIA Director Allen Dulles via the Warren Commission.
Broken NATO promises and the roots of the Ukraine crisis
At the 1989 Malta summit and in February 1990 talks, Secretary of State James Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not move “one inch eastward” beyond a reunified Germany; the promise was oral, not written, because “we trusted you,” per Gorbachev aide Valentin Kuvaldin.
Clinton, Bush Jr., and Obama successively expanded NATO to Russia’s borders; the 2008 Bucharest declaration that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members” crossed a Russian red line explicitly warned about by Ambassador William Burns (later CIA Director) in a 2008 cable released by WikiLeaks.
The 2014 Maidan coup — facilitated by $5 billion in U.S. “democracy promotion” (per Victoria Nuland) and an intercepted Nuland–Pyatt call naming the post-coup government weeks in advance — triggered civil war in Donbas, where Kyiv’s shelling killed ~14,000 by 2022 (OSCE data).
Minsk agreements, the 2022 invasion, and the Istanbul peace deal
Minsk I and II (2014–15) mandated ceasefire, heavy-weapons pullback, and Donbas autonomy with Russian-language rights; Kyiv refused implementation, and shelling spiked in February 2022 per OSCE monitors.
Putin sought a diplomatic off-ramp: in December 2021 Russia submitted draft treaties demanding no NATO expansion and no offensive missiles in Ukraine; the U.S. and NATO formally rejected them.
On 30 Dec 2021, Putin called Biden directly (Biden was alone in Delaware) and secured a pledge — confirmed in the White House readout — not to deploy offensive strike missiles in Ukraine; U.S. negotiators in Geneva days later disavowed the pledge, and Blinken told Lavrov “forget about it.”
Six weeks into the 2022 invasion, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators (Putin’s envoy and Zelensky’s close aide David Arakhamia) initialed a ceasefire/autonomy deal in Istanbul; Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv and killed it, saying the West’s goal was “weakening Russia,” a goal later echoed by Defense Secretary Austin.
Russia-gate, the DNC “hack,” and Seth Rich
The July 2016 DNC leak was blamed on Russia to divert attention from emails showing the DNC rigged the primary against Bernie Sanders; the claim originated at the Democratic Convention and was pushed by Clinton aide Jennifer Palmieri.
Obama pressured DHS and DNI Clapper to issue an October 2016 statement accusing Russia despite zero forensic evidence; the FBI never examined the DNC servers — CrowdStrike (headed by ex-FBI official Shawn Henry) did.
Under oath in Dec 2017, Henry told the House Intelligence Committee: “We did not have concrete evidence that the data was exfiltrated… there are indicators it was staged for exfiltration, but we just don’t have the evidence that says it actually left.”
NSA veterans Bill Binney and Ed Loomis proved via physics (transfer speeds) and Snowden slides that the data copy was local — an inside job; the prime suspect is DNC staffer Seth Rich, murdered 10 July 2016 (nothing taken, case unsolved) weeks after WikiLeaks announced it had Clinton-related emails; Assange offered a $20k reward for Rich’s killer.
The FBI seized Rich’s laptops, denied possessing them for years, then claimed “too much” material to process; a Texas federal judge recently moved to appoint a special master. Columbia Journalism Review suppressed the Henry testimony in its 2018 Russia-gate review.
Iran nuclear program and the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate
After the Iraq WMD debacle (Senate Intel Committee 2008: evidence “uncorroborated, contradicted, or non-existent”), Congress demanded an objective Iran NIE; State Dept. INR chief Thomas Finger led a firewalled, year-long process.
The Nov 2007 NIE — unanimous, high confidence, all 16 agencies — judged Iran halted nuclear-weapon work in 2003 and had not restarted; every annual threat assessment since repeated this until 2024.
CIA Director Bill Burns (Jan 2025) publicly confirmed: “They stopped working many years ago… we would know right away” via IAEA cameras and monitoring.
Russia has repeatedly offered to take 80–90% of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (as in the 2015 JCPOA), giving Trump a face-saving exit; Netanyahu, facing election, pushes for war; U.S. munitions inventories are exhausted (“invented inventories,” per British term).
The USS Liberty (June 1967)
Israeli fighters and torpedo boats attacked the NSA collection ship USS Liberty in international waters off Sinai, killing 34, wounding 174; intercepted Israeli pilot comms: “This is an American ship” — “Follow your orders.”
Sixth Fleet launched fighters to defend the ship; McNamara ordered recall; Admiral Geis demanded to speak to LBJ, who said “I don’t want to embarrass our ally Israel.”
Two plausible motives: (1) prevent U.S. intercept of next-day Golan Heights invasion orders; (2) conceal mass execution of Egyptian POWs near shore witnessed by Israeli journalists.
Captain McGonagle received Medal of Honor quietly at a Navy base, not the White House; survivors were gagged for decades under threat of court-martial; Marine Sgt. Bryce Lockwood first spoke publicly in 2006.
Deep state, Israel lobby, and the collapse of objective analysis
McGovern describes a “deep state” of careerists (Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Gates) who promote analysts who toe the line; Gates (under Casey) advanced only those who treated Gorbachev as a “clever commie” and Russia as an eternal threat.
The sole exception: the Iran NIE line held for 17 years because analysts were firewalled; Tulsi Gabbard recently waffled under pressure.
No NIE has ever been produced on Israel; Angleton-era compartmentalization persists; Netanyahu caught on hot mic (2001): “80% of Americans will support us no matter what we do… we can bend the Americans any way we want.”
Joe Kent (ex-NCTC director) resigned Feb 2025, stating the Iran war “is not our war… Iran poses no imminent threat to U.S. national security”; he was stonewalled by FBI/CIA on investigating assassination attempts on Trump and Charlie Kirk.
Doug MacGregor (Trump’s last Pentagon adviser): orders were slow-walked or ignored by the bureaucracy; the uniformed military is compromised by revolving-door careers (Lockheed, RTX).
Current strategic picture
Russia: winning in Ukraine; economy on war footing; backed by China (Xi tacitly accepted post-Olympics invasion); Russian public now sees Germany (55%), UK (49%), Ukraine (43%) as top enemies — U.S. fourth (~40%).
NATO: “no more in any real defensive sense”; Trump treats allies as “deadbeat daddy”; Article 5 is not credible without U.S. forces; Europe lacks divisions and munitions.
Iran: faced down U.S./Israel strikes; hypersonic missiles, hardened sites; Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to Western shipping; Saudi Arabia unable to defend itself, turning to Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt — House of Saud near collapse.
Israel: genocide in Gaza, forced starvation, assassinations; “arc of resistance” (Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias, Hamas) legally resisting occupation per UNSCR 242 (1967) and international law; Netanyahu may go nuclear if cornered.
U.S. politics: youth turning against automatic Israel support; midterms may signal shift; but deep state, defense contractors (Palantir, Lockheed), and financial interests (BlackRock, Vanguard) drive policy regardless of elections.
McGovern’s verdict: the U.S. has lost objective intelligence, strategic honesty, and the ability to distinguish its interests from those of client states — a recipe for catastrophic war and economic collapse.
